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nazgulnarsil comments on People Neglect Who They Really Are When Predicting Their Own Future Happiness [link] - Less Wrong Discussion
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people neglect their near selves in favor of their far selves when considering far goals.
Their far selves will most likely have the same basic disposition, even if different circumstances. I think that's the point being made here: that people neglect to think of how they react to events, emotionally (eg. how happy they get when happy things happen) and only think of the events themselves. A future accountant may be happier than a future actor, but neither of them would guess it.