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PhilGoetz comments on Don't plan for the future - Less Wrong Discussion

1 Post author: PhilGoetz 23 January 2011 10:46PM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 24 January 2011 08:24:40PM *  1 point [-]

Personally, I think the most likely scenario is either that Earth is somehow special and intelligent life is rarer than we give it credit for; or that alien UFAIs are generally not interested in interstellar/intergalactic travel.

Given the sort of numbers thrown about in Fermi arguments, believing the former would suggest you are outrageously overconfident in your certainty that your beliefs are correct about the likely activities of AIs. Surely the second conclusion is more reasonable?

Comment author: Snowyowl 25 January 2011 08:32:33AM 0 points [-]

Er... yes. But I don't think it undermines my point that we are unlikely to be assimilated by aliens in the near future.

Comment author: Desrtopa 24 January 2011 08:55:16PM 0 points [-]

Personally, I don't think it's at all unreasonable to assign probabilities of any particular planet developing intelligent life on orders of 10^-12 or lower.

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