It seems to me that Eliezer is approaching decision theory in an amateurish and self-deluding fashion.
Given your analysis I concluded the reverse. It is 'amateurish' to not pay particular attention to the critical edge cases in your decision theory. Your conclusion of 'self-delusion' was utterly absurd.
The Prisoner's Dilemma. "Cherry Picked"? You can not be serious! It's the flipping Prisoner's Dilemma. It's more or less the archetypal decision theory introduction to cooperation problems.
Link: physicsandcake.wordpress.com/2011/01/22/pavlovs-ai-what-did-it-mean/
Suzanne Gildert basically argues that any AGI that can considerably self-improve would simply alter its reward function directly. I'm not sure how she arrives at the conclusion that such an AGI would likely switch itself off. Even if an abstract general intelligence would tend to alter its reward function, wouldn't it do so indefinitely rather than switching itself off?
If it wants to maximize its reward by increasing a numerical value, why wouldn't it consume the universe doing so? Maybe she had something in mind along the lines of an argument by Katja Grace:
Link: meteuphoric.wordpress.com/2010/02/06/cheap-goals-not-explosive/
I am not sure if that argument would apply here. I suppose the AI might hit diminishing returns but could again alter its reward function to prevent that, though what would be the incentive for doing so?
ETA:
I left a comment over there:
ETA #2:
What else I wrote: