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XiXiDu comments on BOOK DRAFT: 'Ethics and Superintelligence' (part 1) - Less Wrong Discussion

11 Post author: lukeprog 13 February 2011 10:09AM

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Comment author: XiXiDu 13 February 2011 11:41:18AM 1 point [-]

In this chapter I argue that the technological singularity is likely to occur within the next 200 years...

If it takes 200 years it could as well take 2000. I'm skeptical that if it doesn't occur this century it will occur next century for sure. If it doesn't occur this century then that might as well mean that it won't occur any time soon afterwards either.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 13 February 2011 04:44:00PM 3 points [-]

I have a similar feeling. If it hasn't happened within a century, I'll probably think (assume for the sake of argument I'm still around) that it will be in millenia or never.

Comment author: lukeprog 13 February 2011 07:26:17PM 0 points [-]

200 years is my 'outer bound.' It may very well happen much sooner, for example in 45 years.

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