If you value 1 BTC at $25, you should just buy BTC with cash directly.

I should, but I'm not confident enough of my analysis to spend anything but some electricity & time, and I'm very low on money anyway.

If I had a stable income and some savings, I hope I would have the intellectual honesty to invest a few hundred/thousand dollars* into bitcoins (and probably gold while I'm thinking about high-payoff speculation).

Apparently, either most people have not considered that a bitcoin may eventually be worth more than $10,000, or they think the probability of this happening is closer to 0.01%.

Could be both, plus a general refusal by educated/techie types to act on reasoning that smacks too much of lotteries and Pascal's Wagers.

* Past that I think you get into interesting issues about how much and whether to start discounting bitcoins because $50 million of bitcoins in the jackpot scenario isn't twice as valuable to you as $25 million of bitcoins in said jackpot scenario. The expected utility isn't static but should also shrink as one accumulate bitcoins.