Where does 150 years and 200 years come from? Just long enough to sound conservative?

Since Turing humans have been overly optimistic about when we would have machine intelligence. There is nothing I see in the study of either machine intelligence or biological intellitence to suggest to me that we are anywhere but on a very steep part of a very complicated learning curve that we have been on for 50 years already. I don't know how I would quantify where the peak of that learning curve might be.

Even with that, I like your book!