Even if they don't want to discuss their insights "ad nauseum", I need some indication that they have new insights. Otherwise they won't be able to build AI.

Evolution managed to do that without any capacity for having insights. It's not out of the question that enough hard work without much understanding would suffice, particularly if you use the tools of mainstream AI (machine learning).

Also, just "success" is not something one would wish to support (success at exterminating humanity, say, is distinct from success in exterminating polio), so the query about which institution is more likely to succeed is seriously incomplete.