an AI with a prior of zero for the existence of the outside world will never believe in it, no matter what evidence it sees.
Would such a constraint be possible to formulate? An AI would presumably formulate theories about its visible universe that would involve all kinds of variables that aren't directly observable, much like our physical theories. How could one prevent it from formulating theories that involve something resembling the outside world, even if the AI denies that they have existence and considers them as mere mathematical convenience? (Clearly, in the latter case it might still be drawn towards actions that in practice interact with the outside world.)
Sorry for editing my comment. The point you're replying to wasn't necessary to strike down Johnicholas's argument, so I deleted it.
I don't see why the AI would formulate theories about the "visible universe". It could start in an empty universe (apart from the AI's own machinery), and have a prior that knows the complete initial state of the universe with 100% certainty.
At the recent London meet-up someone (I'm afraid I can't remember who) suggested that one might be able to solve the Friendly AI problem by building an AI whose concerns are limited to some small geographical area, and which doesn't give two hoots about what happens outside that area. Cipergoth pointed out that this would probably result in the AI converting the rest of the universe into a factory to make its small area more awesome. In the process, he mentioned that you can make a "fun game" out of figuring out ways in which proposed utility functions for Friendly AIs can go horribly wrong. I propose that we play.
Here's the game: reply to this post with proposed utility functions, stated as formally or, at least, as accurately as you can manage; follow-up comments explain why a super-human intelligence built with that particular utility function would do things that turn out to be hideously undesirable.
There are three reasons I suggest playing this game. In descending order of importance, they are: