The belief that we should come to know the world through knowledge of (and correction for) cognitive biases, and knowledge of (and correct use of) probability theory.

That seems to be close to what LW is about. Yet the more I learn the more I am leaning towards experimentation and intuition. Probability is obviously correct when dealing with problems like the Monty Hall problem and endless other uses, yet it is almost unusable in daily life and breaks down given certain thought experiments. So whether you approach some lower and upper bounds you go with intuition to decide or actual experimentation to gather other kinds of evidence and use probability to verify the results.