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taryneast comments on Designing serious games - a request for help - Less Wrong Discussion
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To get the ball rolling, here's an idea based on the "predicting red or blue" card game focusing on calibration, mentioned here: Lawful uncertainty.
The user will be presented with cards one at a time. The cards will be either red or blue. There are X cards in the pack (maybe 50? enough for a good run). At the start of the game, the proportion of red:blue is displayed as percentages.
There will be different types of card-sequences. a) purely random b) an obvious pattern (regularity or increasing numbers of blue etc) c) a combination of the two.
When game begins, the cards will be "turned over" one at a time. before the next card is turned over, the user is prompted to "guess the colour" - they have two buttons - red and blue ad clicking on one of those buttons is their guess... and also causes the card to be turned over.
The user starts with a score of 100%. If the user got the card right, the score does not change. Otherwise it is reduced (can't rem the exact function for this - probably need to re-read the article).
A user plays to beat their previous score. High scores are stored for the top ten.
If the player gives probabilities instead of choices, you can have him lose points equal to the log of the probability he assigned to what actually happened (minus the log actually, since it'll be negative). In that case giving honest probability estimates is the optimal strategy.
Sounds like level two. :)