after we've got that working, we could then figure out how to get the user to describe the ruleset to the computer in a flexible way. That's actually a Tough Problem, BTW. It's basically forming a mini-language... so definitely on the books, but probably not the first iteration. :)
Yeah, I realized that as I was writing the longer example, and also that it wasn't strictly necessary. Interesting, but not necessary. =)
Your description of phase 1 prediction coding is very close to what I was picturing, and having a randomized set of questions rather than just saying "predict the final state" (in entirety) would give more game repeatability for less code if I understand correctly.
I actually really like the idea of having them just give a probability estimate the first time, or the first few times. I'm betting that will make for an increased effect of confirmation bias in those stages, and that their scores will improve when they're forced to itemize evidence weights - which illustrates a point about confirmation bias as well as tying into the kind of thought process needed for Bayesian prediction.
(If you were to get as far as trying to code the user-described ruleset bit... I'd suggest finding someone who's played Dragon Age and ask about the custom tactics options. I think that sort of format would work, as long as the number of total types of game objects and operators stayed relatively small.)
We need some ideas for serious games. Games that will help us be better. Games that reward us for improving ourselves (even if just by the satisfaction of seeing our scores improve). Games that will help us in our quest of Tsoyoku Naritai
We've got an upcoming hackday in London - where we'll have a (small) bunch of people able to code up any good ideas into something usable... but we need **you** to help us come up with a whole bunch of good ideas.
To start with, they should be simple ideas - not as complex as Rationalist Clue (which is an awesome idea... but we all have dayjobs too). I've got in mind something like the kinds of games you see at luminosity
The ideas should address individual biases - a way of training us to: a) recognise when we've accidentally engaged a bias b) reward us when we find a way to get the "right answer" in an unbiased manner.
We can do the programming (more help would of course be welcome), we can even come up with some ideas of our own...
but we are few, and you are many... and the more ideas we get, the better we can choose between them... so let's roll.