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Daniel_Burfoot comments on The Heilmeier Questions - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's part of an expected utility calculation. The other questions are relevant to the estimation of the probability of success (P) and the utility of success (A). That suggests the expected utility is PA. But actually the expected utility is PA + (1-P)B, where B is the utility of failure. The second term is probably non-trivial, and might even dominate. For further analysis of this issue, see here.