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JoshuaZ comments on 12-year old challenges the Big Bang - Less Wrong Discussion
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It isn't caution to overestimate. Being risk averse with an accurate probability assessment is not the same thing as having overestimated probabilities. (Although the issue of the general tendency to overestimate one's confidence is certainly relevant.)
There is another sense in which a probability estimate can be cautious: by not being too close to 0 or 1.
Overestimating the probability of X is just underestimating the probability of not(X).