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DanielLC comments on Size of the smallest recursively self-improving AI? - Less Wrong Discussion
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But there's no reason for us to be in a universe where they failed as opposed to one where they would eventually succeed. In other words, why are we modern men in an unlikely universe rather than cave men in a likely one?
Because we're still around to observe it.
If every universe with unfriendly AI disassembles humans to use them for something else, then the fact that I have a body right now implies that I don't live in one of those universes.
No, there's people with bodies in universes with unfriendly AI. They're just earlier. Since they have to be earlier, there's fewer of them, but not as few as there would be.
The fact that you're this late shows that you're not in a universe which developed unfriendly AI early. The number of late people is a much higher portion of people if unfriendly AI is hard to develop, so the fact that you're a late person suggests unfriendly AI is hard.
I suspect you're taking the current time through the development of civilization as a given. There's no reason to do this.
I think this suggests FOOM is technically difficult to start; or at least that there's a reasonable chance that civilizations of our stage won't have started one.
People might "eventually succeed" here - but after that, what if there's 7 billion of us - and only one of them?