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jsalvatier comments on Recent de-convert saturated by religious community; advice? - Less Wrong Discussion
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This recent book discusses the evidence about the influence of genes and parenting on children's life outcomes. Caplan claims that the evidence says for the most part parents have significant effects on who their children are in the short run but not in the long run. He does discuss the evidence for religiosity in particular and he finds mostly the same pattern. Parents have a large effect on what their children say about their religious labels (Christian, Muslim etc.) in the long run, but not much effect effect on how religious their children act (church attendance, that sort of thing).
Interesting. I'll have to check that out, but it tracks well with Steven Pinker's discussion of similar things in Blank Slate (amazon link), which he summarizes briefly in this TED Talk.
The talk is fascinating, especially his discussion about "twin studies," where he seems to echo much of what you suggested above. IIRC, he rated genes and peer groups as having the top influences on children. Takes a load off :)