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BrianScurfield comments on Bayesian Epistemology vs Popper - Less Wrong Discussion

-1 Post author: curi 06 April 2011 11:50PM

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Comment author: falenas108 07 April 2011 12:56:18AM 0 points [-]

Citation: Popper, K. R. (1963). Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge, New York: Harper and Row. Reprinted London: Routledge, 1974.

It says theories should resist being overthrown for them to be proper theories. That implies that it is possible for a theory to be overthrown.

Comment author: curi 07 April 2011 12:59:11AM *  7 points [-]

A theory can be fallibly overthrown, but not definitely overthrown, in Popper's view. Quotes out of context are easy to misread when you are not familiar with the ideas, and when you make assumptions (e.g. that overthrowing must be definitive) that the author does not make.

Comment author: falenas108 07 April 2011 01:01:26AM 3 points [-]

Ok, thanks for correcting me.

Comment author: Peterdjones 12 April 2011 08:25:35PM 1 point [-]

"A theory can be fallibly overthrown, but not definitely overthrown, in Popper's view. "

So maybe Jaynes was using "disprove" to mean "fallibly overthrow".

Comment author: curi 07 April 2011 01:10:57AM 1 point [-]

No page number isn't very nice. For anyone interested, it is on page 309, which is at the start of chapter 10 section 3.

If you read the context, you will find, for example, an explicit denouncement of the quest for certainty on the next page. Plus elaboration. Popper's position in these matters is not unclear.