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benelliott comments on Bayesian Epistemology vs Popper - Less Wrong Discussion
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Nitpicking here, grue and bleen aren't statements and thus can't be assigned probabilites. "This object is grue" and "this object is bleen" are statements.
Yes, I left making up more specific examples as an exercise for the reader.
Assuming that the object in question is an emerald, then grue is in conflict with our best explanations about emeralds whereas there are no known problems with the idea that the emerald is green. So I go with green, but not because I have assigned degrees of plausibility but because I see no problem with green.