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Larks comments on Modeling sleep patterns - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: pdf23ds 12 April 2011 02:02AM

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Tags: sleep bayesian markov modeling

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Comment author: Larks 12 April 2011 02:50:49PM 1 point [-]

If you want a model, how about this for a simple but not very good first attempt:

  • markov process, with each state an ordered pair, where the first element is the time you went to sleep, and the second the duration of your sleep.
Comment author: pdf23ds 12 April 2011 07:00:14PM 1 point [-]

What I'm wondering with a markov process is whether it could be embellished to include other potentially relevant variables. From 5 minutes reading wikipedia, it seems like I'd have a combinatorial explosion of states, and the more states, the more data needed to train the model.

So I'd have like 48 states, for each half-hour of the day, times 3-4 for 8-11 hours long sleep? Would it work to have ordered pairs where the first item is measured in time since my last awakening?

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