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timtyler comments on Sandberg, A. and Bostrom, N. (2011): Machine Intelligence Survey - Less Wrong Discussion
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The survey gives a 33% chance of an "extremely bad outcome" from the development of machine intelligence.
Another of their surveys gave a 5% chance of human extinction at the hands of superintelligence by 2100.
These figures may need to be "adjusted" - on the grounds that the FHI seems to be a bit of a doom-mongering organisation for whom the end of the world is a fund-raising and marketing tool, and the surveys sample from their friends and associates.