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shokwave comments on [SEQ RERUN] "I don't know." - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: MinibearRex 24 April 2011 09:40PM

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Comment author: shokwave 25 April 2011 12:24:29PM 0 points [-]

If you have a certainty of 55% on a binary (A) or (B) question, and you respond "it seems to me there's a 55% chance of "Yes" ", I wouldn't be surprised if the non-perfect Bayesian recipient of the information would treat this as if you had mentioned a certainty of 75%.

Hence my useful phrases; in practice they diminish the other person's measure of my certainty significantly.

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