I think it's entirely possible for people within corporations to build cozy empires and argue that they should be paid well, and for those same people to in fact be incompetent at value creation - that is, they could be zero-sum internal-politics specialists. The corporation would benefit from enforcing a policy against this sort of "employee lock-in", just like corporations now have policies against "supplier lock-in".
This would entail, among other things, everyone within the corporation having a job description that is sufficiently generic that other people also fit the same job description, and for outside auditors to regularly evaluate whether the salaries being paid for a given job description are comparable to industry standards.
I haven't heard of anyone striving to prevent "employee lock-in" (though that might just be the wrong words) - but people certainly do strive for those related policies.
There are lots of potential upsides: 1. At the prospect of potentially being tested, EY shapes up and starts producing. 2. Due to real-world experience, EY's ideas are pushed along faster and more accurately. 3. SIAI discovers that EY is "just a guy" and reorganizes, in the process jumping out of its recurrent circling of the cult attractor. 4. Due to EY's stellar performance in the real world, other people start following the "work half time and do rationality and existential risk reduction half time" lifestyle.
In general, my understanding of SIAI's proposed financial model is "other people work in the real world, and send money without strings to SIAI, in exchange for infrequent documentation regarding SIAI's existential risk reduction efforts". I think that model is unsustainable, because the organization could switch to becoming simply about sustaining and growing itself.
You seem to be optimizing this entire problem for avoiding the mental pain of worrying about whether you're being cheated. This is the wrong optimization criterion.
Please refer to the updated documented here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/5il/siai_an_examination/
This version is an old draft.
NOTE: Analysis here will be updated as people point out errors! I've tried to be accurate, but this is my first time looking at these (somewhat hairy) non-profit tax documents. Errors will be corrected as soon as I know of them! Please double check and criticize this work that it might improve.
Document History:
Todo:
Disclaimer:
Acting on gwern's suggestion in his Girl Scout Cookie analysis, here is a first pass at looking at SIAI funding, suggestions for a funding task-force, etc.
The SIAI's Form 990's are available at GuideStar and Foundation Center. You must register in order to access the files at GuideStar.
Overview
Analysis:
Revenue
Analysis:
Expenses
Analysis:
Big Donors
Analysis
Officer Compensation
Prior to doing this investigation, I had some expectation that the Singularity Summit was a money losing operation. I had an expectation that Eliezer probably made around $70k (programmer money discounted for being paid by a non-profit). I figured the SIAI had a broader donor base. I was off base on all counts.* I am not currently an SIAI supporter. My findings have greatly increased the probability that I will donate in the future.
Overall, the allocation of funds strikes me as highly efficient. I don't know exactly how much the SIAI is spending on food and fancy tablecloths at the Singularity Summit, but I don't think I care: it's growing and it's nearly breaking even. An attendee can have a very confident expectation that their fee covers their cost to the organization. If you go and contribute you add pure value by your attendance.
At the same time, the organization has been able to expand services without draining the coffers. A donor can hold a strong expectation that the bulk of their donation will go toward actual work in the form of salaries for working personnel or events like the Visiting Fellows Program.
Eliezer's compensation is slightly more than I thought. I'm not sure what upper bound I would have balked at or would balk at. I do have some concern about the cost of recruiting additional Research Fellows. The cost of additional RFs has to be weighed against new programs like Visiting Fellows.
The organization appears to be managing its cash reserves well. It would be good to see the SIAI build up some asset reserves so that it could operate comfortably in years were public support dips or so that it could take advantage of unexpected opportunities.
The organization has a heavy reliance on major donor support. I would expect the 2010 filing to reveal a broadening of revenue and continued expansion of services, but I do not expect the organization to have become independent of big donor support. Things are much improved from 2006 and without the initial support from Peter Thiel the SIAI would not be able to provide the services it has, but it would still be good to see the SIAI operating capacity be larger than any one donor's annual contribution. It is important for Less Wrong to begin a discussion of broadening SIAI revenue sources.
Where to Start?
There is low hanging fruit to be found. The SIAI's annual revenue is well within the range of our ability to effect significant impact. These suggestions aren't all equal in their promise, they are just things that come to my mind.