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Constant comments on Nonmagical Powers - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (62)
Are you aware of the wisdom of crowds phenomenon (Surowiecki) and correcting a lucky misapplication / hasty application of it, or are you simply unaware of it? I don't get a sense either way.
Also, I wonder whether the correct mean for this sort of wisdom of crowds averaging is arithmetic or geometric. I would be inclined to think that the geometric mean is the appropriate mean.
I'm aware of the wisdom of crowds phenomenon -- I believe sixesandsevens used a good strategy. (Yes.) I haven't read about the corrections, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are some ways to optimize the process. (Why do you ask this second question?)
I think this is an interesting question too. Perhaps someone knows the math for this; alternatively, it would take a few minutes to test it with some made-up guess distributions. (Any takers?)