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torekp comments on Nonmagical Powers - Less Wrong Discussion
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The guesses in most contests won't be normally distributed, period, so they won't be normally distributed around the true number. They'd be closer to log-normal or some such distribution, I would guess.
Sounds reasonable. How do you know this / what do you base that on?
Long ago, I looked at some data on people's guesses in probability calibration exercises. Exercises like: how many eggs do Americans consume annually - write down a number such that you judge it X% probable the true number is less than or equal, and (100-X)% probable it is greater. I vaguely recall some such thing about the distribution of guesses. A very large number of guesses were many orders of magnitude too low, as well.