[SEQ RERUN] Just Lose Hope Already

Tyrrell_McAllister

Today's post, Just Lose Hope Already, was originally published on 25 February 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

Casey Serin owes banks 2.2 million dollars after lying on mortgage applications in order to simultaneously buy 8 different houses in different states. The sad part is that he hasn't given up - hasn't declared bankruptcy, and just attempted to purchase another house. While this behavior seems merely stupid, it recalls Merton and Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management who made 40% profits for three years and then lost it all when they overleveraged. Each profession has rules on how to be successful which makes rationality seem unlikely to help greatly in life. Yet it seems that one of the greater skills is not being stupid, which rationality does help with.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, where we'll be going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was Politics is the Mind-Killer, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.

Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it here, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, or summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki. Go here for more details, or to have meta discussions about the Rerunning the Sequences series.

Today's post, Just Lose Hope Already, was originally published on 25 February 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

Casey Serin owes banks 2.2 million dollars after lying on mortgage applications in order to simultaneously buy 8 different houses in different states. The sad part is that he hasn't given up - hasn't declared bankruptcy, and just attempted to purchase another house. While this behavior seems merely stupid, it recalls Merton and Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management who made 40% profits for three years and then lost it all when they overleveraged. Each profession has rules on how to be successful which makes rationality seem unlikely to help greatly in life. Yet it seems that one of the greater skills is not being stupid, which rationality does help with.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

I remember a situation from a few months ago when a female friend of mine was being romantically pursued by a guy who she was not even slightly interested in. He had indicated to a few of her friends that he was going to ask her out, and they had told him that she was certainly going to say no. She liked someone else, she wasn't interested in you, etc. He responded by making a poker analogy, and saying that if he didn't try, the probability of success was zero. They pointed out that the plan was not going to work, and he was going to come off looking really stupid. Don't forget to factor the negative penalties of plans not working into your expected utility calculations.

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[SEQ RERUN] Just Lose Hope Already

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[SEQ RERUN] Just Lose Hope Already

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