[SEQ RERUN] Just Lose Hope Already

Tyrrell_McAllister

Today's post, Just Lose Hope Already, was originally published on 25 February 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

Casey Serin owes banks 2.2 million dollars after lying on mortgage applications in order to simultaneously buy 8 different houses in different states. The sad part is that he hasn't given up - hasn't declared bankruptcy, and just attempted to purchase another house. While this behavior seems merely stupid, it recalls Merton and Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management who made 40% profits for three years and then lost it all when they overleveraged. Each profession has rules on how to be successful which makes rationality seem unlikely to help greatly in life. Yet it seems that one of the greater skills is not being stupid, which rationality does help with.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, where we'll be going through Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts in order so that people who are interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was Politics is the Mind-Killer, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.

Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it here, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, or summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki. Go here for more details, or to have meta discussions about the Rerunning the Sequences series.

Today's post, Just Lose Hope Already, was originally published on 25 February 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):

Casey Serin owes banks 2.2 million dollars after lying on mortgage applications in order to simultaneously buy 8 different houses in different states. The sad part is that he hasn't given up - hasn't declared bankruptcy, and just attempted to purchase another house. While this behavior seems merely stupid, it recalls Merton and Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management who made 40% profits for three years and then lost it all when they overleveraged. Each profession has rules on how to be successful which makes rationality seem unlikely to help greatly in life. Yet it seems that one of the greater skills is not being stupid, which rationality does help with.

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

As it is, I appreciate this post for reminding you that quitting is sometimes the better option. It reminds me of a time when I was doing something or another, failed, and quit. A friend, trying to look on the bright side, said "Well, at least you gave up."

It would be nice if there was some kind of practical gauge provided in the post. We can easily identify it in others, but how do we know when we are guilty of it ourselves? When do we know to give up?

Not wanting to pose questions without thought, I have a couple possible ideas:

If you can't find 10 people who think what you are doing is a good idea, it probably isn't. Hacker News pointed me to that one.
If what you are doing causes you no end of soul-crushing despair, occupies a gigantic proportion of your thoughts, and still rates terrible returns (according to your self-report), then you should probably think about giving up soon.
If you take some time to look at how your actions impact others, and find that it negatively impacts someone at least half as much as it positively affects you, you should really think about quitting. Doing the math here is probably intractable, but if you are doing anything that involves the equivalent of millions of dollars, you should really try to do the math.

That would be my first stab at this question.

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[SEQ RERUN] Just Lose Hope Already

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[SEQ RERUN] Just Lose Hope Already

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