Even if I know the exact probability distribution over images, there is an algorithmic problem (namely, how to do the inference), so your view is definitely at least a little too extreme.

I don't dispute that the algorithmic problem is interesting and important. I only claim that the empirical question is equally important.

Applying this standard to current research would stall progress in the directions I (and I think most serious AI researchers) currently believe are most important to actually reaching AI

What you're really saying is that you think a certain direction of research will be fruitful. That's fine. I disagree, but I doubt we can resolve the debate. Let's compare notes again in 2031.