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DanielLC comments on Probability updating question - 99.9999% chance of tails, heads on first flip - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: nuckingfutz 16 May 2011 12:58AM

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Comment author: DanielLC 16 May 2011 04:37:30AM 0 points [-]

That's pretty much what I got. I used a probability distribution for the null hypothesis, but it still works out to 50% for the first flip.