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timtyler comments on Probability updating question - 99.9999% chance of tails, heads on first flip - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: nuckingfutz 16 May 2011 12:58AM

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Tags: statistics probability bayesian coin flip

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Comment author: timtyler 16 May 2011 04:59:44PM *  0 points [-]

Do you mean that you're 99% confident in your reasoning that it comes up tails 99.9999% of the time? If so, you'd be much less than 99.9999% sure of heads in the first place.

You can be 99.9999% sure of heads - and 99% confident of that - if you memorised your confidence - but then subsequently could not remember for sure if there were six "9"s - or maybe seven.

Comment author: DanielLC 18 May 2011 12:51:04AM 1 point [-]

If there was a 99% chance that you remember correctly, and a 1% chance that there was an extra nine, you'd be slightly more than 99.9999% confident if heads.

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