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Nic_Smith comments on Probability updating question - 99.9999% chance of tails, heads on first flip - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (16)
I like the reinterpretation of the problem, but is
a typo? Just running the numbers through SpeedCrunch gives 0.99 * 0.0001 = 0.000099, and 0.000099 ~= 0.0001, which seems intuitively right as 0.99 is "almost" 1.
Augh! Serves me right for modifying the values while writing the comment and not thoroughly rechecking the calculations, thanks!