What will really change bitcoin's fate is some small nations using it as a currency
I am unpersuaded by your argument that that any nation would do that (because nations that cannot make a credible commitment to good monetary policy can just peg their currency to the dollar). Much more likely IMHO that some wealthy actor like Tehran or the Chavez administration will increase the appeal of accepting and holding bitcoins by offering to swap bitcoins for, e.g., heating oil as a way of sticking it to the US government.
When I think of your scenario, I find it much more plausible than mine. Thanks, Richard. I update my belief.
There seems to be quite a bit of a Bitcoin interest around here, with several articles about it already: [1 2 3 4 5 6 7]
I propose that links and generic Bitcoin comments should be posted here, instead of making a new discussion thread for each interesting article about the subject.