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Eugine_Nier comments on The Joys of Conjugate Priors - Less Wrong Discussion

41 Post author: TCB 21 May 2011 02:41AM

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Tags: bayesian priors statistics probability

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 21 May 2011 03:49:24AM 6 points [-]

But you're probably not really looking for a distribution over different parameter settings; you're looking for a single best setting of the parameters that you can use for making predictions.

This is in essence the narrative fallacy. While it can be a useful heuristic, there are dangers for example causing you no neglect outliers and black swans.

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