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Cyan comments on A discussion of an applictation of Bayes' theorem to everyday life - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: AdeleneDawner 29 May 2011 06:04AM

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Comment author: Cyan 29 May 2011 07:01:06PM *  2 points [-]

This conversation piqued my interest because one of my expectations was subverted. Due to habits ingrained in me while applying Bayes' theorem in more formal statistical inference, I almost never give consideration to P(B) in these informal applications; I find it much easier to think about the likelihood ratio, P(B given A) / P(B given not-A).

Given P(A), the likelihood ratio determines P(B) and vice versa, so it's not like there's any difference in practice. But I find it interesting to observe a different habit of mind in action.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 29 May 2011 07:29:40PM *  1 point [-]

It is interesting. I (informally) use P(A)*P(B|A) / [ P(B|A)+P(B|notA) ].