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Minicamp Confidence Intervals

-16 [deleted] 02 June 2011 07:40PM

I predict, with 50% confidence, that this comment will have between +1 and +4 karma at 9 pm PST on 6/2/2011.

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Comments (7)

Comments (7)

Comment author: Kevin 03 June 2011 02:29:21AM 4 points [-]

Less Wrong hates it when you do things like this, definitely not.

Comment author: Dorikka 02 June 2011 08:57:10PM 2 points [-]

I think that your prediction affected the outcome. :D

Comment author: Lightwave 03 June 2011 09:06:23AM 2 points [-]

He probably thought he had predicted how his prediction will affect the outcome. :D

Comment author: prase 03 June 2011 11:09:16AM 1 point [-]

Better would be to predict that the comment will have, say, between -10 and 0 karma. Would the audience who dislike this type of comments downvote to hurt the author's karma, or upvote to frustrate his prediction?

(I am not going to do the experiment myself - the first time it is slightly amusing, the second time it would be annoying. But if somebody doesn't mind being annoying...)

Comment author: cwillu 03 June 2011 01:04:12PM 0 points [-]

We're really good at this sort of group coordination: -20 karma for sure :)

Comment author: prase 03 June 2011 02:10:31PM 0 points [-]

So modify: predict that the karma will be negative with 90% confidence.

Comment author: wedrifid 03 June 2011 11:29:43AM 0 points [-]

Better would be to predict that the comment will have, say, between -10 and 0 karma. Would the audience who dislike this type of comments downvote to hurt the author's karma, or upvote to frustrate his prediction?

I would downvote for annoyingness.

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