Is there a LW post that explains the basic terminology, like what constitutes a 'model', what models are subject to revision and when to abandon a model completely?
It would help me a lot if someone could write a post explaining the difference between a hypothesis that can be falsified and a prediction. For example, what is the difference between MWI, AI going FOOM and general relativity. As far as I can tell, the first is a consistent explanation of what we know about quantum mechanics, the second a prediction and the third a theory (a collection of various kinds of confirmations of a hypothesis).
If someone predicted that the world is going to end, I understand that this prediction is not falsifiable, because it is too vague. At what point is it rational to demand someone to be more specific? At what point is it rational to ask to make a prediction falsifiable? When is it acceptably to ask someone under what circumstance the person would be able to notice that their belief was false?
Can AI going FOOM be "surprised" and revised, or is the singularity always near? And if AI going FOOM is not subject to empirical criticism, what hinders one to reformulate it as a hypothesis? Would that be a bad idea?
Can AI going FOOM be "surprised" and revised, or is the singularity always near?
ETA: I'm taking "Singularity" to mean "AI hard takeoff followed by the end of the world as we know it," not just "AI" or "AI hard takeoff."
The hypothesis that a Singularity is possible/going to happen predicts the observation of a Singularity under certain conditions, usually either "within a few years or less of the first smarter-than-human AI" or "before some year (I've usually heard 2100). If one or both of ...
Today's post, Beware the Unsurprised was originally published on May 3, 2007. A summary (from the LW wiki):
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments of the original post).
This post is part of a series rerunning Eliezer Yudkowsky's old posts so those interested can (re-)read and discuss them. The previous post was Think like Reality, and you can use the sequence_reruns tag or rss feed to follow the rest of the series.
Sequence reruns are a community-driven effort. You can participate by re-reading the sequence post, discussing it, posting the next day's sequence reruns post, summarizing forthcoming articles on the wiki, or creating exercises. Go here for more details, or to discuss the Sequence Reruns.