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mutterc comments on General Bitcoin discussion thread (June 2011) - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: SilasBarta 10 June 2011 11:21PM

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Comment author: mutterc 12 June 2011 02:32:56PM *  0 points [-]

To expand, whenever you think of "dollar debasement", ask yourself "relative to what?"

  • Gold: Exactly how important is gold to everyday commerce and life?
  • Oil: Check the oil price in other currencies to get an idea of how much of the change is because of the value of the dollar vs. the supply of and demand for oil.
  • Other commodities: see "oil". If the commodities are produced in the USA (or China, as long as they peg their currency, the RMB, to the USD), then fluctuations in the value of the dollar can't affect their prices. (Edit: Yes, everything needs oil, and almost everything has at least some "foreign" component, so there can be second-order effects).
  • Other currencies: If capital flows in and out of the subject countries are relatively free, then exchange rate changes mean something real about the respective economies. (China restricts capital flows and buys a shitload of USD, that's how they can keep the exchange rate constant. It also means domestically they have ugly inflation they can't do anything about).