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wedrifid comments on General Bitcoin discussion thread (June 2011) - Less Wrong Discussion
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66% pullback in price this weekend. This certainly isn't a market for the fainthearted.
My probability distribution looks something like 90% chance of going to 0 and 10% chance of going to multiple hundreds of dollars.
My downside is limited to having paid market price for 2 video cards and a power supply if bitcoins go to zero. My friend just built a mining rig with three cards for around $650. I tried to talk him out of it but the concept of free money seems to override people's ability to make cost benefit analysis.
I will bet at those odds. $1 pays me $10,000,000 that it stays in the range of $0.1 to $100 for two years.