If anyone's checked out the bitcoin source and tried to compile it, you might notice that it is... well, kind of bloated. By my standards anyway. It requires huge numbers of gigantic libraries and so forth. Way more than what it actually does. All you really need are some TCP/IP, database, and crypto algorithms.
In fact, unless I'm missing something major, seems like we're really just talking about a glorified IRC bot with some security features... Does anyone else get the impression that Bitcoin's current back end is over-complicated? Also, does this argue in favor of writing (or anticipating someone writing) a cleaner/smaller version?
I've kind of stayed out of this discussion because I think one's interpretation of the product depends on more on your views about economics and politics than any disagreement about bitcoin's properties. And Tyler Cowen's skepticism makes me think that bitcoin proponents are deep enough into Rothbardville that our lines of engagement would get fruitlessly broad.
But I'm curious on one point - why do some people have this dramatic 'coins'll be worth thousands or nothing" attitude. I can see the zero, and I can get my head round the viewpoint where it's...
66% pullback in price this weekend. This certainly isn't a market for the fainthearted.
My probability distribution looks something like 90% chance of going to 0 and 10% chance of going to multiple hundreds of dollars.
My downside is limited to having paid market price for 2 video cards and a power supply if bitcoins go to zero. My friend just built a mining rig with three cards for around $650. I tried to talk him out of it but the concept of free money seems to override people's ability to make cost benefit analysis.
Would anyone care to comment on the recent Mt Gox hack n' crash?
Personally, I'm thinking that this very bad. The currency won't look as good the mainstream, and I'm anticipating panic sells as soon as the exchanges get up and running again. I'm agnostic as to whether Bitcoin will die or not though...
So I had a thought about cryptographically secure titles of ownership.
Let's say we make a public-private key pair that is a hash of some uniquely identifying biometric data. Much like namecoin we then use the blockchain to encode information, specifically contracts. You can sign contracts with your private key and anyone can check what contracts you've signed with your public key. This allows you to reliably signal certain sorts of intentions and know that everyone knows that you are signalling these intentions.
Let me preface by saying that I haven't thought in depth about bitcoin so I am definitely willing to change any of the opinions I currently hold.
I do not understand why people are especially excited about bitcoin. It's certainly moderately interesting and could provide some benefits but doesn't seem revolutionary in any sense I can see. I'd like to hear solid arguments for why bitcoin is something radically different from other currencies rather than a moderate upgrade on currency technology which will eventually be incorporated into existing currencies.
I...
I share with your general impression, but I think your phrasing casts bitcoin advocates as idiots which is a poor discussion tactic.
Yes, I had an ulterior motive in starting this topic right this moment. See, I'm trying to close the inferential gap in explaining Bitcoin to the layperson, so I wrote up a blog post explaining the relevant cryptographic pre-requisites. (It's based on discussions with an economist who plans to write about Bitcoin soon.)
I would appreciate any corrections. Also, this is another case of me claiming to be better at explaining stuff than most people, so see if I live up to the standard (preferably from those that don't already understand this stuff). The ec...
UPDATE: For those of you who are interested in comparing your hash-fast mining rig to FLOP-fast supercomputers out there, I just recently noticed that Bitcoin Watch reports both the network's hashrate per second and its FLOP rate per second. I don't know how they derived the second figure (see "User:"jimrandomh's comments on the difficulty of comparing hash-type and floating point computations).
Dividing the two, it's implicitly assuming ~12,700 floating point operation equivalents per computed SHA-256 hash. For the 2+ users among us that have a...
Just got my second card running a few hours ago. If it all goes bust at least it will have been an entertaining ride.
Building a mining rig is no longer that attractive with the price doubling for the video cards that are good at it.
edit: looks like you can still build a 1Gh rig for $800 with a payoff time of <30 days presuming power is cheap and price/difficulty doesnt drop too hard.
Ok, I was confused by "Platonic" which I thought you were using to refer to intrinsic as opposed to subjective value. Thanks for the clarification.
Subjective value is indeed among the core assumptions of neoclassical economics. The problem is that a whole lot of stuff that economists would like to be able to do (due to both theoretical and ideological interests) is automatically ruled out by this assumption. Reification of "real" values is one way how they try to square this circle, since it enables them to introduce intrinsic value in all but name into their theories.
Putting aside what mainstream economists believe, when you say "meaningless" or "fundamental arbitrariness", do you mean for example that there is no way, even in principle, to compare the marginal utility of a dollar in 1950 with the marginal utility of a dollar in 2010? Is it due to the standard interpersonal comparison of utility problem, or something else?
Yes, you can see this as a corollary of the general problem of interpersonal utility comparison. (Although even if interpersonally comparable utilities are granted and known, you need additional strong assumptions to get rid of all the degrees of freedom that make the choice of index arbitrary.) But these are all different ways of looking at the same problem, namely the problem of intrinsic vs. subjective value.
This is not to say that every attempt to compare the value of money in different places and times for some particular purpose is meaningless, but whether a given attempt is meaningful depends on the context and the sort of comparison used. To guarantee soundness, such comparisons should be justified on a case by case basis by demonstrating that the conclusion indeed follows from the particulars of the way comparison is done. What is definitely unsound is defining a general-purpose “real” value of money and then using it as de facto intrinsic value, without any reflection on how exactly its definition connects to the concrete problem at hand.
To put it another way, do you think the mainstream economics community should be more aware of problems with the theory and practice of price indexes and perhaps allocate more resources to solving them, or do you think they are just not solvable, and an entirely new approach is needed?
Your question seems to assume the existence of a real scientific community in economics, of the sort that exists in natural sciences. However, the problem is that the economics profession has always been deeply intertwined with politics, government bureaucracy, and broader ideological controversies, and as with other social sciences, many of its basic theories and concepts were invented to support an ideological agenda, not as part of a true scientific endeavor. Moreover, many questions in economics have real immediate implications in terms of power, wealth, and status -- to take a pertinent example, entitlement payments by the government are often linked to price indexes, so the question of how they should be defined is not just theoretical, but of immediate financial interest to many parties. Clearly, it would be naive to expect that such questions will be treated with a pristine scientific approach.
In this situation, it’s unrealistic to try to identify and fix the problems and biases in economics (and other social sciences) on a case by case basis, since the real problems are much more general and fundamental. Of course, the existing body of knowledge in economics is far from being entirely worthless, but separating the wheat of true insight from the chaff of ideological delusion and dishonesty, let alone establishing a real epistemologically sound science in place of what exists now, would be a very radical project.
We've started a habit of creating periodic Bitcoin threads to confine discussion thereof to those threads and prevent excessive proliferation of Bitcoin topics in the discussion section. Here is a link to the last one, which links the other discussions. Lot's to talk about, and another bounce in Bitcoin's value (up to 33 then down to 24), so share your links and thoughts!