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Thomas comments on Survey: Risks from AI - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: XiXiDu 13 June 2011 01:05PM

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Comment author: Thomas 13 June 2011 01:28:58PM *  1 point [-]

  1. 10% for 2015 or earlier. 50% for 2020 or earlier, 90% for 2030 or earlier.

  2. At least 50%.

  3. I think no human level AGI is necessary for that. A well calibrated worm level AGI could be enough. I am nearly sure, that it is possible, but the actual situation of the creating (accidentally or not) self enhancing "worms" is at least 50% probale to 2030. It needn't to be a catastrophe, but it may be. 50-50 prior again. The speed is almost certain to be fast. Say in days after launch.

  4. I am not sure what they could do about this. FAI as a defense will most probably be too late anyway,

  5. Yes.

  6. Many. Theorems proving Watson is just one of them. Or WolframAlpha programer, for example.

Comment author: Thomas 13 June 2011 02:36:41PM 0 points [-]

A bug. I can count 1,2,3,4,5,6 .. and did so in the above post. Visible under Edit option, but not when published. Funny,

Comment author: [deleted] 13 June 2011 02:52:04PM 1 point [-]

3, I think no human level AGI

Why is there a comma after the 3?

Comment author: Thomas 13 June 2011 02:54:48PM 0 points [-]

THNX. Now, when the comma has gone, the numbers are okay,

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