1) 10% - within fifty years, 50%, no idea. 90% - don't see myself as that confident it will ever be developed. I think it will, given the assumption, but can't say I'm 90% sure it will.

2) Very, very close to zero, while still being a real number and thus worthy of attention.

3) No idea. It is clearly possible, but other than that I don't know.

4) No idea. The SIAI are extraordinarily secret about FAI research, for what appear to be (if you accept their initial argument) extremely good reasons. But this could mean that they have got 99.999% of the way to a solution and just need that extra dollar to save the universe, or they could be sitting round playing Minesweeper all day. For what it's worth, I suspect they're doing some interesting, possibly useful work, but can't know.

5 No

6 No