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wedrifid comments on EFF stops accepting Bitcoins - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: JoshuaZ 21 June 2011 03:57PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 22 June 2011 01:21:13AM 2 points [-]

This is exactly the type of reasoning that leads to markets behaving irrationally. Do your own research, rather than trying to use the current market behavior as your primary source of information about how you ought to act in the market.

No way! Use market behaviour as free information unless you have some specific reason to consider yourself to have the potential to know more than the market and the expectation that you have something significant to gain by your specialised knowledge.

Comment author: Pavitra 22 June 2011 06:18:07PM -1 points [-]

Um, no. Doing well in the market requires you to do better than everyone else. Updating on market behavior gives you literally zero relative advantage.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 23 June 2011 04:05:14AM 1 point [-]

Um, no. Doing well in the market requires you to do better than everyone else. Updating on market behavior gives you literally zero relative advantage.

You are confusing two separate goals. One of which is making a profit from being in the market. The other goal is using the market as an information source about what is or is not likely to be an economically viable course of action. If it helps, use a prediction market as the example.

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