Model uncertainty only has a big effect on probabilities that are defined as not (some event with probability near 1). When talking about specific scenarios with low probability, model uncertainty just scales them - e.g. a specific god existing in Pascal's wager isn't vastly over or underestimated if model uncertainty isn't accounted for.
Hmm, why is this the case? I think I'm missing background knowledge here.
Advanced apologies if this has been discussed before.
Question: Philosophy and Mathematics are fields in which we employ abstract reasoning to arrive at conclusions. Can the relative success of philosophy versus mathematics provide empirical evidence for how robust our arguments must be before we can even hope to have a non-negligible chance of arriving at correct conclusions? Considering how bad philosophy has been at arriving at correct conclusions, must they not be essentially as robust as mathematical proof, or correct virtually with probability 1? If so, should this not cast severe doubt on arguments showing how, in expected utility calculations, outcomes with vast sums of utility can easily swamp a low probability of their coming to pass? Won't our estimates of such probabilities be severely inflated?
Related: http://lesswrong.com/lw/673/model_uncertainty_pascalian_reasoning_and/