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rolf_nelson comments on Making an Amanda Knox prediction market - Less Wrong Discussion
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Dang, civil-case reversal rates are much higher than the U.S. (http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=11027117874758072323), I still can't find anything on criminal cases though. komponisto said about 1/3, any cite on that?
There's lots of interesting high-profile Italian murders on Wikipedia, but after excluding those related to the mafia, terrorism, or serial-killers, there's not much recent activity left. Still, three of the ones I found (the Cogne homicide, the Novi Ligure murder, and the "Beasts of Satan") were partially or fully upheld, and the fourth (Nicholas Green) was reversed from acquittal to conviction. (I guess there's no double-jeopardy protection in Italy, since that would deprive them of additional opportunities to reverse. </sarcasm>) So I'll poke around a bit more when I get a chance, but so far a 50/50 bet is feeling moderately advantageous to me, even with the DNA review results.
It was a remark by Amanda Knox's attorney, Luciano Ghirga. I can't remember where offhand.
One would expect the rate to be much higher than in the U.S. simply due to the rules of the game: unlike the U.S., Italian courts at the first level of appeal are allowed to reexamine the facts of the case, instead of merely ruling on whether procedure was correctly followed.