komponisto comments on Making an Amanda Knox prediction market - Less Wrong Discussion
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It was a remark by Amanda Knox's attorney, Luciano Ghirga. I can't remember where offhand.
One would expect the rate to be much higher than in the U.S. simply due to the rules of the game: unlike the U.S., Italian courts at the first level of appeal are allowed to reexamine the facts of the case, instead of merely ruling on whether procedure was correctly followed.