My awareness of Bayesian reasoning doesn't quite enable me to use it explicitly with success most of the time, or maybe the successes are not vivid and spectacular enough to be noticed, but it does make me aware of Bayes-stupid inferences committed by me and others.
Just yesterday my father proclaimed that a certain beggar who tends to frequent our street with a kid or two and claim to be a homeless is a liar, because, well, he's not a homeless because he is also often seen in a company of drunkards and he probably drags around the kids for show and they aren't even his. I asked my dad whether the beggar's claim of homelessness makes him more or less likely to be homeless. He said less likely, but after that he denied that the beggar's failure to claim so would make him more likely to be a homeless.
I'm not sure I understand - why would he deny that the beggar's failure to claim so would make him less likely to be homeless? I have trouble imagining how the conversation you're describing went.
Basically, I cannot stand people who will not bow to the Truth.
I always had this trait, but I noticed lately that it is becoming worse, and has consequences. Ironically, the main trigger seems to be the sequences. They gave me a confidence that sometimes frightens me. There are multiple manifestations:
The closest semi-famous embodiment of this character trait I can think of is Xah Lee. I like much of his writing, but he can be very blunt, sometimes to the point of insult.
Needless to say, I do not endorse all these changes. The problem is, while I know I should calm down, I just can't lose when I'm confident truth is on my side. I'm not even sure I should. (Note however that I'm rather good at losing to evidence.)
So, what do you think? What should I do? Thanks.