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CaveJohnson comments on Those who can't admit they're wrong - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: Zed 01 July 2011 05:09AM

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Comment author: CaveJohnson 01 July 2011 09:20:41AM *  0 points [-]

One should be pretty damn suspicious when ones explanation posits that a single causal factor largely explains the lack of a complex thing.

So you're saying the pareto principle heuristic isn't good for those kinds of situations? That makes some sense, I suppose.

Comment author: Will_Newsome 01 July 2011 10:39:09AM 0 points [-]

I tried to remain agnostic; on the meta level it could be that 20% of choices of distribution account for 80% of my consternation caused by choices of distribution, or that I am optimizing my message to influence the 20% of people who make 80% of such errors instead of the general Less Wrong populace. I'm advocating a decision policy, much of the epistemic support is swept into the "insofar as my perception is evidence" clause. I can't easily reflect on the intuitive calculus that my brain does to determine the utility of collecting or propagating certain information given many sources of uncertainty.

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