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timtyler comments on Hanson Debating Yudkowsky, Jun 2011 - Less Wrong Discussion

14 Post author: XiXiDu 03 July 2011 04:59PM

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Comment author: timtyler 06 July 2011 12:21:34PM *  1 point [-]

If there was a risk that might kill us with a probability of .7 and another risk with .1 while our chance to solve the first one was .0001 and the second one .1, which one should we focus on?

To solve this problem we need to know more. As it stands, the marginal effect of investment in the problems on the probability of the problems being solved is unknown - as is the temporal relationship of the problems. Do they arise at the same time? Is there going to be time to concentrate on the second problem after solving the first one? - etc.

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