komponisto, I would be very interested in reading if you decided to do a similar post (to the Knox case post you had) for this case as well - even if it's just a discussion post.

Also, you say that p(Anthony=guilty) is 'possibly over %50'. Let's assume it's %50.

This claim could be interpreted as the following. Suppose that there are X many possible scenarios for what happened, given the constraints of our evidence about the case. In X/2 Anthony is guilty and in X/2, she is not guilty.

This seems implausible to me. X/2 alternate scenarios (scenarios that don't involve Anthony's guilt) seem too many.

What other alternate scenarios are there?