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gwern comments on Casey Anthony - analyzing evidence using Bayes - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: Zachary_Kurtz 07 July 2011 05:19PM

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Comment author: gwern 10 July 2011 02:38:39AM 0 points [-]

That doesn't really tell us much - lying about accidents is rare, OK. Parents murdering their children, accidentally or deliberately, are also pretty rare. It's the ratio of rarity which tells us which to prefer in lieu of any other evidence - which is rarer?