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Sophronius comments on Casey Anthony - analyzing evidence using Bayes - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (19)
Judging from what I read on wikipedia:
-She is clearly guilty of child neglect, making her more likely to be guilty of either murder or manslaughter
-The body is too far gone to see how the child died, and there are no witnesses or convincing dna evidence
-Overall, there is very little evidence that points in favour of either murder or manslaughter to the exclusion of the other
-Manslaughter has a higher prior probability than murder (especially when swimming pools are involved, which are responsible for about 25% of all deaths for children that age from what I've read)
-Therefore I find that probability (manslaughter or other cause) > probability (murder)
-Legally speaking, she can not be convicted of murder beyond reasonable doubt
-however, the probability of her being guilty of murder is still around 20%
-Legally speaking, she can not be convicted of manslaughter beyond reasonable doubt
-however, the probability of her being guilty of manslaughter is still around 65%