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CharlesR comments on [SEQ RERUN] Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence - Less Wrong Discussion

7 Post author: MinibearRex 17 July 2011 04:08AM

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Comment author: CharlesR 26 September 2011 05:55:48PM *  2 points [-]

Let E stand for the observation of sabotage, H1 for the hypothesis of a Japanese-American Fifth Column, and H2 for the hypothesis that no Fifth Column exists. Whatever the likelihood that a Fifth Column would do no sabotage, the probability P(E|H1), it cannot be as large as the likelihood that no Fifth Column does no sabotage, the probability P(E|H2).

I feel like there is a mistake here. Shouldn't E stand for the observation of no sabotage?

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